I admit the title is a bit exaggerated. Nobody but Noraus himself can know what he’s thinking. But there are some assets of strategic value for the leader of Winter Coalition inside Pochven.
An important fact to know is that there can be no more structures anchored in Triglavian space. This makes any structure that already was in the systems all the more valuable today. Most citadels have been destroyed after the Triglavian Invasion in the hopes of spoils and riches. The original owners were often unable or unwilling to defend them.
Today, Fortizars are a rare sight in the region. Not many are left in Pochven. One of them is held by Rote Kappelle. With ~680 Characters, they are a comparably small to mid-sized alliance. But why is some Fortizar in Nalvula, disjunct from K-space valuable to a null bloc, you ask?
The answer is wormholes:
C729: originates in systems 3 jumps from the Pochven systems on the old map, 1B kg total mass., 410m kg max jump mass (up to orca, BS, bowhead), 12 hour lifetime. Guarding entities: Edencom.
1.000.000.000 kg mass would allow for a fleet of about 60-70 Muninn (11.000 kg mass per HAC) plus logistics and some smaller support ships like Command Destroyers and Interdictors to jump through. And all this is basically inside of Winter Coalitions backyard in Vale of the Silent. If you ask me, this sounds right up the alley of some medium-sized alliances who focus on PvP. These could utilize such wormholes to harass and create timers inside of Winter Coalition space.
Having a Fortizar to stage out from can be very convenient for such a group.
Naturally, a coalition leader would rather have seen such an Fortizar removed from the underground. Consequently, Noraus announced plans to get rid of the Rote-Fortizar in Nalvula during a coalition meeting alongside a list of other topics. Did translation software perform too well, or did someone even fabricate something? I don’t think so. After having flown with Winter Co. for almost two years and getting to know Noraus a bit in the process, I think heedless chosen wording is more likely here than anything.
Only hours later Gobbins, leader of Pandemic Horde, let it be known that they didn’t agree with the narrative of some points made in Noraus’ meeting notes. And to deliver a statement, they would help defend the Fortizar in Pochven over the coming days and also prepare to hot drop on Winter Co. targets. Meanwhile making clear that diplomatic channels are still wide open.
Here is a video of the “deployment of a Black Ops SIG” that according to PH was mostly one person in a Ragnarok, dropping on Marauders.
As I am typing this, there was no record of destroyed Fortizars in the Pochven region. Seemingly, FRT and allies stood down after Pandemic Horde made their public announcement.
If you believe in it, you could say trying use the Christmas holidays as advantage in a structure timer might have resulted in some negative karma.
However, the strategic goal to remove structures not under their control from Pochven will likely not change because of this. I believe it is only a matter of time until we see more fights like this one, where Rote Kapelle has to call in all hands to defend against the larger numbers of the null bloc. As so often in Eve, it comes down to who can bring more friends.